One of the good news airing these days about Ethiopia is a promising peace deal between the two sides in war which have ravaged the country and its people since November 4 2020.
Personally, I tried to assess the underlying factors of the war not to mention my critical inquiries on the immediate factors giving way for the outbreak of the war. In my assessment, I fore fronted the critical role of foreign forces, mainly the Western powers, in the process of peace deal
Given the stifled political situation among the two big-wigs (the TPLF versus the federal government) is risking the country’s stability at stake, Western powers feared the situation not to end up in total collapse of government in Ethiopia
While leaving my arguments open to skepticisms on the positive role of the West for the long term peace & stability in Ethiopia, I was of opinion that the US and its allies don’t want to see total collapse of government in Ethiopia for as it annoys their short term and long term interests in the Horn of Africa
In the meantime, the US and its western allies sought for a clear winner in the political deadlock in Ethiopia to work with them, implicating their endorsements for the military resolve of the stalemate whoever of the two sides at war can make for it
Below is how I presented my take on the matter in my book published in February 2022, titled ‘Predicaments of Ethiopia’s Wartime Economy: Uncertainty, Aid Politics and Macroeconomic Instability’, Pages 250–251
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‘……. Generally speaking, the growing political and security problems in Ethiopia has contributed a lot for the soaring ties between the Ethiopian government and the Western powers. Circumstantial evidences since the war broke in Ethiopia revealed the US and its allies perceived the Ethiopian government incapable of managing the growing political & security deterioration in the country. In fact, the West considered the federal government in Addis Ababa so weaker and unreliable partner to make business with
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More importantly, until the federal government comes out clear winner from the ongoing war, restoring smooth ties with the Western powers seems unachievable. By corollary, to win trust from the US and its allied powers in the West, it seems clear that the federal government has to break the political stalemate with TPLF in any way possible, whether in dialogue (political solution) or brute force (military solution)’ (Pages 250–251)
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