Note to Readers: Large part of this article was extracted from my recently published book titled ‘PREDICAMENTS OF ETHIOPIA’s WARTIME ECONOMY: Uncertainty, Aid Politics and Macroeconomic Instability’ published in Feb. 2022. The book is available for online purchase via this link:
A fairer understanding about the current state of affairs between Ethiopia and the West, it takes to look back on the matter and recount on what they have expected of Ethiopia from the political reform process began in 2018 and which is an unfinished business as yet. While investigating the matter, the author of the book found it important to recollect from the proceedings of a panel discussion organized by the US Peace Institute in July 2019
The panel discussion was meant to draw inferences on the course the political reform in Ethiopia with a reference point being April 2018 to July 2019. The event was chaired by Mr. Fred Strasser, and the panelists were seasoned US diplomats having rich account on Ethiopian politics:
- John Carson, advisor at the US Peace Institute
- Marc Bass, a US diplomat having presence in Ethiopia as far back as 1991, the time when EPRDF regime took hold of state power
- David Shin- US ambassador to Ethiopia (1996-2000)
- Aurelia Brazeal – US ambassador to Ethiopia (2002-2005)\
- Donald Booth
The discussants evaluated on the matter from political, economic, demographic and socio-cultural elements ascribed to the fabrics of Ethiopian society. As such, the event examined past practices, current realities and draw inferences on what the future shall (will) hold for the reform process to end up in ‘success’
The proceedings of the event is transcribed and documented by Mr. Fred Strasser, editor at US Peace Institute titled ‘In Ethiopia, Former U.S. Diplomats See Promise in Reform’
- Expectations from Economic Reform Process
The evaluation of the discussants on the economic reform process was something with ‘encouraging results. Donald Booth take on the matter was that PM Abiy Ahmed’s leadership in Ethiopia to have taken steps forward (understandably) in line with the interests of the USA and its Western allies. However, Booth was skeptical of the future, mentioning the tendencies of ‘reluctance’ of the new government of Ethiopia on the policy advises of the US and its financial institutions, apparently IMF and World Bank Group. The discussants poised that the Ethiopian government is likely be guided by own interests and directions, leaving aside the policy lines of development partners from the West
Donald Booth puts forward the matter as:
“….Today we see Abiy making all these changes and most of them we really like.” he said. “But we have to be a little cautious about how much advice they’ll take from outsiders. They are going to do it their own way”
- Expectations from Political Reform Process
The reform being underway in Ethiopia, from political perspective, was also subjected on the event. The discussants raised core issues in the political reform process so far[1], and inferred major achievements and pitfalls in this regard. In their assertions, the US diplomats reckons institutional, historic, sociocultural elements in connection with ongoing political reform process
Some of the encouraging outcomes registered following the reform agenda put in place back Mid 2018 were the release of political prisoners, efforts to open up space for media to freely operate, actions targeting to widen the political spectrum, institutional reforms to make for an independent and freer national electoral board; actions taken to empower women politically and increase their representation in the executive branch of the government.
One of the assessments over Ethiopian politics was historical dominance of elites from the northern part of the country, which refers Tigray and Amhara people, as one hindrance factor to political development in Ethiopia. The argument in this regard ascribed to anthropological & psychosocial interpretations where the political personality of Northerners, which was characterized as ‘rigid’ and ‘hardliner’, inimical to promote a culture of democracy in the political arena. According to David Shin:
“…..compromise came very hard to highlanders on both sides of the [Ethiopia-Eritrea] border. You just have to accept that”
In a bid to deal with the ‘rough’ political personality of northern elites, the way outs suggested by David Shin was that the need to make for elites from other parts of the country be actively engage in political matters and the importance of empowering them in the makings of decisions on key aspects of state politics
Such an understanding about the political personality of the elite class in Ethiopia remembers two books authored by an American Sociologist, Donald Levin – ‘Greater Ethiopia’ and ‘Wax and Gold’. The two books attempted to characterize the fabrics of people of Amhara and Tigray. One of the inferences the books made was on the monopoly of political business by elites from this part of the country. Donald Levin also attempted to model the political personality of elites of Amhara and Tigray, which one may finds controversial
Whatever the case, however, David Shin’s take as elites from the north have monopolized Ethiopian politics for centauries is something undeniable. Such inference suggests reducing political monopoly by Amhara and Tigray elites would help promote democracy in Ethiopia
As a matter of reality, subsequent episodes in the sphere of politics in Ethiopia apparently shown up in line with the suggestions of David Shin. That marks the onset of Prosperity Party (PP) in October 2019. One of the foundations of Prosperity Party (PP) was addressing one of the fractures of Ethiopian political system, where the political field dominated by politicians from the center (and the North), disregarding elites from the peripheral parts of the country. Indeed, the Prosperity Party’s charter connoted the need for fair representation of elites from all corners of the country in the political affairs. This development in the ruling party in Ethiopia can be considered a path-breaking move in the history of modern politics in the country
The algorithm for the size of political representations in the top executive body of the Prosperity Party (PP) was based on the size of ethnic makeups in Ethiopia. This formula, though appreciated by many political pundits, was utterly opposed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The argument by TPLF was on account that the Tigray ethnic group has been monsters in the history of Ethiopia politics, though appears minority in terms of size of population. As such, representation on political matters based on population size disregarded the political capital of Tigrayan elites in the history of modern politics in Ethiopia. The underpinning issue in the argument of TPLF is that state politics should be guided not by size of population of ethnic compositions in the country but by the political capital of the respective ethnic groups.
In any ways, TPLF was not part of coalitions which were liquidated and established Prosperity Party. The establishment of Prosperity Party, though apparently achieved in relieving the political monopoly of the northern Ethiopian elites, it was also followed by widening the rift with TPLF
Given TPLF a major political actor in Ethiopia for the past three decades or so, the increased dispute between the two has been turning the country to face political deadlock which is still unresolved. The increased tension between TPLF and PP has finally culminated with a war, following TPLF forces attacked the federal armed forces stationed in Tigray, where TPLF hold regional government. Since then, political solutions to the tension apparently ended, and military confrontation appeared the only way to resolve the matter
[1] the period in reference was from April 2018 to July 2019
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