ሩህ ሚዲያ – Ruh Media

Four months on since the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region broke, the civilian causalities is horribly increasing day in and day out. For a steady peace in Tigray, military solution is revealing not fetching. Worth noticing is that the destruction is getting escalated ever since the day the end of the war declared by the Ethiopian government back in mid-December 2020.

Circumstantial evidences shows that until the federal government security forces control the larger parts of Tigray, the civilian causalities were relatively minimal. Rather, the damage of the war has been growing in the days afterwards. That is a clear indicative that the conflict in Tigray region is turning from conventional war to guerrilla warfare.

Counting the cost of the war may be important, but a more pressing issue that should be a concern for all Ethiopians is the fate of 8 Million people living in Tigray region. In fact, the concern lies not just for the wellbeing of people of Tigray, but also for the wellness of all Ethiopians too. As I observe it so, each day the news heard about the bleeds happening on fellow Tigrayans, the hearts of Ethiopians in other parts of the country also bleed.

More important of all, the instability in Tigray has a knock-on effect turning a clear & present danger against the interest of the country and its 120 Million people. The spillover effect of war can be interpreted in terms of economic, political, humanitarian and security instabilities a likely scenario all over Ethiopia in the near future.

How to Achieve Amicable Solution to Security Deadlock in Tigray Region?

As I believe it so, at least at this time, it may be very hard to convince both parties on war to look an early solution to resolve the conflict. That is because they are as fresh in the fights busy of justifying their causes to move on with their war. Motivated by grievances or revengeful mindsets, the ego of both sides in the conflict may be unabated at this particular time. Only hardships in the upcoming months would give warring sides a real lesson to calm down and look for peaceful solutions.

In the meantime, however, millions of innocent civilians are at risk of losing precious lives and the destruction of their livelihoods. It is unfortunate to conclude so, but that is a hard reality to admit unless swift response holds to cease the conflict.

It is my firm stand that TPLF takes the lion share of the responsibility for the current state of destruction in Tigray. That, however, doesn’t mean TPLF the only party responsible for the chaos. It is understandable that the federal government in Ethiopia forced to involve in the war. While so, however, that doesn’t mean Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government immune from taking responsibilities altogether for the political mistakes that has been fermenting in the past three years which finally turned an armed conflict.

What I would call for both parties on war in Tigray is to take crucial lessons as early as possible from the ongoing destructions of lives and properties all across Tigray and in Ethiopia at large.

For TPLF forces, my message is to crush their ego motivated by lust for political power, and return to their soul to prioritize the interest of the Tigray people whom they claim to have stood to benefit. The TPLF big-wigs need to evaluate how far their moves ended up less to the benefit, and much to bereave of fellow Tigrayan mothers, fathers, sisters & brothers.

For the Federal Government in Addis Ababa, my message is to think how feasible the military solutions would be given the country has trapped by multiple shocks at a time, attributed to global pandemic, natural disasters, political uncertainties and socioeconomic woes. 

More importantly, the Ethiopian government has to understand that the cost of the war would be much to its side than in the TPLF side. This is because the TPLF has an option to move on with the fight as a guerrilla force. In fact, the topography of Tigray region is all suitable for such a fight as a hit-and-run. On top of that, it is not to forget TPLF has predominant support from Tigray people, which fighters would use as a hideout. Popular supports for TPLF in Tigray also interpreted into providing logistics crucial to stay in the fight, like as a source of food ration for militants. The dynamics in the geopolitical environment among countries on the corridor of where the ongoing war is holding, that is the mounting tensions between Ethiopia, Sudan and the State of Eritrea would leave a fertile ground to smuggle armaments and ammunitions in service of TPLF fighting forces.

All that would prolong the conflict in Tigray, much to the grief of civilians around the war zone, and at the cost of Ethiopians in general.

My message to warring forces in Tigray is to take lesson as early as possible from the destructions of innocent lives and livelihoods already in the past four months or so. Such is the only way forward to prevent the worst that is yet to come.